GridSignals detects ERCOT price spikes 30–60 minutes before they hit your meter. Dual detection for scarcity and congestion events. Built for large flexible loads that can't afford to react late.
Price spikes aren't all the same. System-wide scarcity and local transmission congestion have different causes, different signatures, and different lead times. We catch both.
When ERCOT reserves deplete and ancillary service markets stress, prices spike system-wide. Our ML model tracks reserve levels, AS prices, and their interaction to detect scarcity 45–60 minutes before energy prices react.
Transmission constraints can create localized price explosions even when system-wide reserves are fine. Our constraint monitor tracks shadow prices and binding patterns to detect congestion 25–60 minutes before nodal prices diverge.
Winter 2025–2026 produced multiple price events across ERCOT. The GridSignals detection system identified every one.
| Date | Peak Price | Type | Lead Time | Detection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | $1,485/MWh | Scarcity | 45–60 min | ✓ Detected |
| Jan 26, 2026 | $1,165/MWh | Scarcity | Flagged | ✓ Detected |
| Feb 1, 2026 | $560/MWh | Congestion | 25–60 min | ✓ Detected |
| Dec 24, 2025 | $247/MWh | Scarcity | Flagged | ✓ Detected |
| Dec 17, 2025 | $213/MWh | Scarcity | Flagged | ✓ Detected |
The 25-minute gap between a miner's response time and an HPC facility's migration window is where GridSignals creates value. Early warning converts directly into avoided exposure.
A miner can flip off in 5 minutes. A hybrid facility with HPC workloads can't.
That 25-minute gap is where GridSignals lives — and it's worth $1.3M+ per year.
Price forecasters predict the symptom. GridSignals detects the cause — reserve depletion, transmission stress, and operational anomalies — before the energy market reacts.
Every 5 minutes, we ingest ancillary service prices, reserve levels, constraint shadow prices, ERCOT operational messages, and DC tie status. Real-time physical signals, not lagging price data.
Two independent detection engines evaluate simultaneously. The ML model scores scarcity risk from reserve and AS signals. The constraint monitor scores congestion risk from shadow prices and binding patterns.
Three-tier alerts: WATCH (situational awareness), PREPARE (begin migration), CURTAIL (confirmed spike). Graduated response gives hybrid facilities time to move workloads before prices move.
We're onboarding ERCOT facilities with 50+ MW flexible load. Pilot includes full event forensics and ProofPack validation.
Request a PilotEvery alert includes a full audit trail — timestamped predictions, market data, and outcomes — for operational compliance and regulatory documentation.